IS 2024 VERDICT A REFLECTION OF 2004 LOK SABHA ELECTIONS?

  

 

IS 2024 VERDICT A REFLECTION OF 2004 LOK SABHA ELECTIONS?

 

 DECODING THE SIMILARITIES & DIFFERENCES

       BETWEEN LOK SABHA 2024 & THE 2004 VERDICT

    

The success of a democracy is rooted in how unequivocally the voters rally around issues that matter. Centered around the issues, the Game of Narratives, was played with intentions ranging from safeguarding a family’s legacy, to safeguarding the future of a generation, a statesman considers his family. The elections of 2024 Lok Sabha and 2004 Lok Sabha bear striking resemblances and a few differences.

 

Here are the similarities and differences between the two elections.

1)  NDA tanked in the state where its next PM was supposed to come from

 

2004	2024
BJP lost 30 seats in UP and SP won 37, emerged the Single Largest Party	BJP lost 30 seats in UP and SP won 37, emerged the Single Largest Party

 

Why BJP juggernaut stopped in Uttar Pradesh?

The BJP lost almost half the seats it previously won from Uttar Pradesh in the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections. Though there were many reasons to the loss, the biggest reason was the fear among the lower social classes of the UP that the reservations would be removed by Modi 3.0 if it comes to power.

The circulation of the allegedly fake videos of Union Home Minsiter Amit Shah promising the end of reservations for the OBCs given to the Muslim Community further added to their fears.

 

 

The Samajwadi Party boss Akhilesh Yadav’s decision not to grant tickets to candidates with Muslim Backgrounds, failed to encourage lower castes, particularly the Scheduled Castes of UP to vote the BJP.

 

2)  NDA lost half a dozen seats in West Bengal and shrank in size

2004	2024
NDA lost six seats in West Bengal	NDA lost six seats in West Bengal

 

The reasons for debacle in West Bengal  

The Bharatiya Janata Party failed to meet expectations in the state of West Bengal because it did not back its parry cadres after they suffered post poll violence following the 2021 Elections to West Bengal Vidhan Sabha. The BJP supporters were threatened through-out the seven phases of the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 as the state witnessed rampant political violence.

The Calcutta High Court ruling in favor of the revocation of the fake OBC Certificates and appointments of the beneficiaries as the Government School teachers fueled the rumors that the BJP may end reservations.

The interesting fact is that the OBC Certificates were getting cancelled for the OBC Certificate holders with Muslim Identity (who were granted the status after 2010 by the TMC led administration) but it is alleged that the other OBC voters apprehended losing their OBC status.

The lack of co-ordination between the BJP state leadership of West Bengal and the BJP Central Leadership is also reported to have contributed to the debacle.

 

 

 

 

 

3)  The NDA gets routed in Tamil Nadu and DMK wins a 39+1 seats

2004	2024
NDA fails to win a single seat in Tamil Nadu	NDA fails to win a single seat in Tamil Nadu

 

The Heart break in Tamil Nadu

Before embarking on a post-mortem into the BJP’s failure to win a single seat in Tamil Nadu, the fact that the BJP performed well despite many odds cannot be ignored.

How BJP Raised the Bar for itself

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ran its most ambitious campaign in Tamil Nadu for the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. The party that never had a tall leader in Tamil Nadu compensated for its shortcoming by appointing K. Annamalai as Chief of the

state unit.

K. Annamalai : The Rising Superstar of Tamil Nadu Politics

Annamalai, hails from Karur in western Tamil Nadu, and is widely appreciated as an IPS officer in the Karnataka cadre between 2011 and 2019. Widely known as Singham, he joined the BJP in 2020, and was elevated to the post of the party’s state president in 2021.

The Real reason why Annamalai is famous

Annamalai’s nation-wide popularity defies the North-South divide as he supports the BJP’s plans to free Tamil Nadu Politics from focusing only on the Dravidian cause and include other social classes in Tamil Nadu’s discourse, too. 

The BJP Tamil Nadu President again made headlines after he reportedly said he would rather resign than support the central BJP’s decision to continue its alliance with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).

AIADMK leaders blamed Annamalai’s remarks against party icons such as CN Annadurai and J Jayalalithaa for playing catalyst in the split of BJP – AIADMK alliance.

 

BJP’s dream run in Tamil Nadu

The BJP polled 11.24% in the Dakshin Bharat state of Tamil Nadu, which happens

to be the highest vote share the party earned in Tamil Nadu.

BJP allied with Pattali Makkal Katchi, PMK, a party that represents OBC aspirations and maintains a stronghold in Northern Parts of Tamil Nadu.

The other allies of BJP include the Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar), the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), to name a few.

AMMK’s T T V  Dinakaran and O. Pannerselvam enjoy influence over the  Mukkulathor Caste, also called Thevars consisting of three castes – the Kallars, the Maravars and the Agamudiyars – which accounts for 8 per cent of the Tamil Nadu population and reside mostly in the Southern and Central parts of Tamil Nadu.

AMMK’s TTV Dinakaran stood second from the Theni Constitueny, whereas O Pannerselvam managed to gain second position from Ramanathpuram.

In the Northern Tamil Nadu, PMK’s Sowmya Anbumani stood second from Dharmapuri.

Similarly, The BJP stood at Number 2 in Nine Lok Sabha Constituences and made inroads in the Lok Sabha from Tamil Nadu.

The Political scientists beleive there isn’t much ideological difference between the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the BJP.

The political pandits allege that a chunk of the AIADMK’s votes shifted to the Bharatiya Janata Party, with Mukkulathor Community palying a key role.

The political analysts opine that with Dinakaran and Pannerselvam shifting their alliance to the BJP, their party, AMMK gained a significant voteshare and so did the BJP.

Why BJP suffered a heartbreak in Tamil Nadu?

The BJP failed to win a single seat in Tamil Nadu because the Party failed to overcome the narrative that the BJP is a party of Hindi speakers and Hindutva Ideology. The BJP which represents the Union Government inherits the aversion from the Tamil Nadu electorate due to the persecution of Tamils in Sri Lanka, giving away Katchathivu to Sri Lanka and inability to solve the Kauvery dispute.

 

4)  100 per cent consolidation of the Minority Vote Bank

 

2004	2024
The Minorities voted against the BJP in the aftermath of 2002	The Minorities voted against the BJP in the aftermath of Ram Mandir, CAA

 

The Pran Pratishtha at the Holy Ram Mandir and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) led to consolidation among the minority votes. The minorities chose to trust the fear mongering by the Opposition instead of voting for empowerment through development steered by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The consolidation takes place despite the allegations of Pasmanda Appeasement made against the BJP.

 

5 ) BJP swept Odisha by winning 20 out of 21 seats

2004	2024
BJP swept Odisha by winning 18 out of 21 seats	BJP swept Odisha by winning 20 out of 21 seats

 

PM Narendra Modi-led BJP’s commitment to development, particularly economic empowerment of the poor was supported by the narrative that the state of Odisha is being governed by V K  Pandian, a bureaucrat, and that BJD chief Naveen Patnaik is going to retire boosted the Bharatiya Janata Party’s bid to win the maximum number of seats. The BJP won a whopping 20 of the 21 seats in Odisha.

 

 

 

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 2004 VERDICT

    AND THE LOK SABHA 2024 RESULTS

 

2004	2024
NDA had won just 5 out of 42 seats in United Andhra Pradesh and a 12 out of 54 seats in United Bihar	NDA won a whopping 29 out of 42 seats in United Andhra Pradesh and a 39 out of 54 seats in United Bihar

 

 

How BJP made inroads in Andhra Pradesh & Telangana

Among the major reasons behind the NDA making inroads in Andhra Pradesh is the arrest of N Chandrababu Naidu by the YSRCP Government which won TDP sympathy for them. Pawan Kalyan siding with TDP added to the support for the TDP-Jan Sena Party alliance.

The implementation of the Land Titling Act that was reported to be undertaken by the YSRCP Government raised fears among the people regarding sale and/or purchase and/or inheritance of land in Andhra Pradesh. Jagan Mohan Reddy led YSRCP Government’s failure to allay the fears of the people contributed heavily to his poll debacle.

The BJP won 3 seats, along with 16 won by Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and 2 won by Pawan Kalyan-led Jan Sena PARTY.

Telangana Miracle by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)

BJP pulled off a miracle in Telangana by capitalizing on the instability in the Bharat Rashtra Sena (BRS) of K Chandrashekhar Rao and got the benefit by fielding nine candidates who switched from BRS to the BJP. The Bharatiya Janata Party won 8 seats in Telangana.   

NDA wins 39 of 54 seats from Bihar, Jharkhand put together

The NDA avoided a debacle similar to the one they faced in Uttar Pradesh because parties like Lok Janshakti Party Ram Vilas (LJP-RV), Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Janata Dal-United (JDU) undertook social engineering to avoid the harm that fake videos surrounding abrogation of Reservations could cause.

Jharkhand sends 9 NDA candidates to the Lok Sabha of 2024 out of a total of 14 seats. The NDA in Jharkhand capitalized heavily on the anger against JMM’s corruption in the state and benefitted the BJP-All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) combine from the Mineral rich state.

THE INFERENCES

During the 2004 Lok Sabha Elections and the run-up to 18^th Lok Sabha (2024-2029) there was an incumbent NDA or BJP at the helm.

Both times the NDA highlighted its achievements and how that led to elevation in Bharat’s stature before the eyes of the World.

1) After analyzing the similarities and dissimilarities between the two historic elections, one can infer that when The Incumbent contests elections on the basis of the Development Initiatives undertaken on its watch, The Opposition capitalizes on the fault lines of the unsatisfied desires of the individual social classes, ultimately misleading them into delivering a fragmented mandate.

2) As far as the inroads made into Odisha and United Andhra Pradesh are concerned, the narratives buttressed by anti-incumbency helped NDA secure unprecedented gains.

3) The NDA trumping the Fake Narrative peddled allegedly by the INDI Bloc in Bihar suggests that the fake narratives that exploit the Caste-Related Fault Lines can be thwarted by putting to use extensive social engineering.

THE LESSON

Bharat that is also known as India, needs a dispensation that tirelessly facilitates the economic empowerment of its people for the next 25 years so that nation can thwart mischievous tactics of exploiting fault lines among its social classes, employed by the present day INDI Bloc.